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Polymarket Gamma · public price quotes, not model win probabilities or actionable signals.
Source, pricing and filter limitations
Source: Polymarket Gamma. Public prices are price quotes, not model win probabilities. No sportsbook live-odds feed, account authentication or execution is implied.
Primary public API contract · Price and order-book methodology
Cash and exposure filters use your entered total cost and exact recorded event names, not liquidity or automated correlated-risk estimates. Final affordability checks belong in the draft. Set risk presets there explicitly.
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COMPARE · MODEL · ALLOCATE
Strategy lab
Every quote below is editable and unverified. Public research prices do not supply your win estimate. Contract identity and settlement evidence come before any edge.
Recalculating allocation draft
| Settlement scenario | Net cash profit / loss |
|---|---|
| Win | $0.00 |
| Lose | -$0.00 |
| Push / void | -$0.00 |
Win-estimate sensitivity ±5 percentage points
Push probability fixed; loss probability = 1 − win − push. Values clipped to valid probabilities.
- Quote 1: exact contract, selection and named source are required (use “none” for no line).
- Quote 1: unknown availability is not actionable.
- Quote 1: observation is missing, lacks a timezone, future-dated or stale (15-minute limit).
- Quote 1: enter a positive stake.
- Quote 1: provider stake limit is unconfirmed.
- Name your independent probability estimate; market price is not a model probability.
- Available cash is unconfirmed; enter usable cash, not bonus balance.
stakesift-strategies-1. No guaranteed profit: execution, changing prices, liquidity, eligibility, tax and correlated settlement failures remain outside this model. A push/void may erase the apparent non-void edge.
Formulas and payout assumptions
Cash payout multiplier R = 1 + (decimal odds − 1) × (1 − commission). Bonus payout multiplier R = (odds − 1) × (1 − commission) + 1 only if promotional stake is returned as cash. Cash required = cash stakes + fixed fees; bonus stake is separate. A-win net = stake A × R A − cash required; B-win net = stake B × R B − cash required. Equal non-void payout allocation uses stake A = total stake × R B ÷ (R A + R B), stake B = total − stake A. Suggested stakes are drafts, not limit-aware orders.
EV = P(win) × win net + P(push) × (−fixed fee) + P(loss) × (−cash required). Commission applies to winnings only, not returned cash stake. Fixed fees are treated as nonrefundable in every modeled settlement. Middle endpoints assume pushes return cash stake; inside the gap both bets win. Enter equivalent push/void rules before using the result.
Single-quote manual EV review
Manual snapshot
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Research only. Stakesift does not place wagers, accept deposits, hold funds or move money. You confirm any action directly with the provider and record the actual bet in Portfolio.